And this isn’t just reserved to elite-level prospects. In 2023 alone, a third-round RB (who many labeled a gimmick track star) dropped 50 points in a game. In Detroit, a second-round rookie TE finished as the TE1…at a position where we are used to waiting 2-3+ years for breakouts. 

Of course, for every De’Von Achane and Sam LaPorta, there is a Jaxon Smith-Njigba–an exciting prospect we overdraft who doesn’t pay off their elevated price tag.

But that’s kind of the point, right? These rookies provide us with an extremely wide range of outcomes that most veterans can’t offer. The mystery black box element is a feature, not a bug.

So when I see FUD (that’s “fear, uncertainty, and doubt” for those of you not steeped in hamfisted financial analogies) surrounding rookies getting off to slow starts or sticker shock to the Marvin Harrison Jr. ADP, I mostly shrug it off. When you aggressively draft rookies–and the data is pretty clear that you should be–you need to know what game you’re playing.

And that game is playing with fire. Sometimes you’ll get burned, but other times you’ll scorch your leaguemates on the way to the promised land.

What is in today’s newsletter?

1. Drafting from the 1.04 this season? Chris Allen walks you through how to navigate your draft.

2. How much drop-off should we expect from Justin Jefferson this season? Dwain McFarland weighs in.

Optimal Draft Strategy with the No. 4 Pick

by Chris Allen

EARLY ROUND MAYHEM

You’ll see more of it in a bit, but I used our new Draft Champion tool to simulate the first round. You can set whatever rules or specific roster-building strategies you’d like, and the algorithm will use our rankings to find the best players. Unsurprisingly, the first three picks require little analysis.

Luckily, the Draft Champion comes with an assistant to come up with suggested picks based on position, strategy, and who’s on the board. However, as I mentioned in the intro, we’re not in Kansas anymore, sitting at the 1.04.

After the first three players are off the board, we’re left to choose from Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall.

Honestly, I can see any of these guys finishing in the Top 3 in their roles.

St. Brown just did it last year. But in a career year (most targets, yards, and TDs), the Lions’ WR1 fell 72.3 PPR points short of CeeDee Lamb’s season total. And Lamb only played one more game. The point delta between Lamb (WR1) and St. Brown (WR3) is the same as the gap between St. Brown and Nico Collins (WR12). But Detroit’s alpha isn’t the only one with yellow flags.

Ja’Marr Chase (and his QB) is 1.) coming off of an injury-riddled season and 2.) hasn’t eclipsed a 25.0% target share in a single season. Justin Jefferson will (likely) have Sam Darnold under center in Week 1. And coincidentally, both RBs will depend on signal-callers with a repaired Achilles tendon. So, there’s no clear answer here. 

However, adjusting our draft to account for a less-confident first-round pick is clear. Irrespective of a WR or RB start, we should ensure we have enough firepower at the core positions. Consequently, we may need to forego a luxury pick at a onesie position. In any case, like always, I’ve built out three teams for us to explore our options.

Admittedly, I set the league to apply balanced approaches to their drafts, and RBs went earlier than anticipated as a result. But the same can happen in our home leagues. Let’s use the middle rounds to make up some ground.

A WORD FROM OUR PARTNERS

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Wide Receiver Rankings and Tiers

by Dwain McFarland

TIER 3 – ALPHAS WITH COMPETITION OR QB QUESTIONS

Justin Jefferson living anywhere other than Tier 1 seems sacrilege. We are talking about the highest-paid non-QB in the NFL, whose talent profile towers over mere mortal WR1s.

You are probably thinking, “Oh, McFly, your shoe's untied.”

Well, I am wearing flip-flops, and I hope I am not being gullible. There are legit questions about the Vikings' offense.

Kirk Cousins averaged 270 passing yards over the last three seasons, and that number is coming down. Since 2018, first-round rookie QBs who weren't the top pick in the draft (J.J. McCarthy went 10th) have averaged 196 yards. 

Sam Darnold has never bested 212 passing yards per game (YPG) in seasons with at least 12 starts. Some will dismiss these concerns by pointing to Nick Mullens' 306 YPG in four starts. However, that ignores that he had 285 and 244 YPG seasons in San Francisco. Kevin O'Connell is a good coach, but he's no Jedi.

I have Minnesota projected above the historical averages (219 YPG). Still, only 5% of WRs on offenses in this range have posted WR1 finishes since 2011. Jefferson has the talent to do it, but if things go bad, he wouldn't be the first talented WR to struggle.

Since 2011, WR1s who faced a 30 to 50 YPG passing downturn have dropped 3.5 PPR points per game. Only two (12%) didn't decline. Here are the WR1s who were close(ish) to 20 PPG the season before:

• Davante Adams: 21.8 to 17.7

• Calvin Johnson: 21.8 to 21.8

• Demaryius Thomas: 21.2 to 17.0

• Stefon Diggs: 20.5 to 16.8

• Demaryius Thomas: 19.9 to 21.2

• Davante Adams: 19.7 to 15.6

• A.J. Green: 19.2 to 16.1

• Emmanuel Sanders: 18.8 to 15.2

• Odell Beckham Jr.: 18.3 to 12.7

I love Jefferson's talent, but Lamb, Hill and Chase are also uber-talented and reside in more dependable situations.

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:

😴 Five sleepers going undrafted in 12-team leagues. Jonathan has you covered.

🤔 Two first-round RBs behind CMC. Which should you draft?

💪 Saquon Barkley shirtless workout content? Say less.

📈 Will a new coach unlock this second-year QB? Ian and Dwain weigh in.

👀 Zamir White is massive now? Insane.

⛳️ Why Keon Coleman doesn’t want to golf with Josh Allen. Lol, fair.

🍿 The Giants love Malik Nabers. Cool clip from Hard Knocks.

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