Make These ADPs Make Sense
There are things in life that don’t make sense. How the Egyptian pyramids got there. How Louie, Louie became such a big hit when no one knows the words. Shoutout to the classic scene in Animal House where Bluto Blutarsky and his frat bros. drunkenly try to muddle through the song lyrics. And to explain Julio Jones’ unicorn-like greatness, Merriam-Webster’s Dictionary does not have enough words.
Now that NFL training camps are happening, it’s really time to start drilling down on players, their projections, rankings, and even their ADP. Whipping them all together into a stew is what will fuel you when you are on the clock and have to decide between Christian McCaffrey and Ashton Jeanty in the first round.
I thought I’d take a look at some players and their projections and ADPs, to see if there might be some players who are going in ranges that just don’t make sense. It could be either because they’ve been pushed too high, or if an equivalent player at the position is going several picks lower. We’re going to do one each at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. Tight end hive familia, feel free to hit up our Discord channel and make your arguments why Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland will (or won’t) do a great impression of Brock Bowers 2024. Or Sam LaPorta 2023.
ADPs That Don’t Match Projections
Quarterback: Jordan Love, Packers (ADP: 126.8, QB18)
Love is currently the QB18 via ADP, and that’s probably because people are down on him because he played hurt practically the entire 2024 season after tweaking his leg on opening night—then missed two games. He’s a season removed from passing for 4,159 yards and 32 touchdowns, while rushing 50 times for 247 yards and 4 more TDs.
His projections are about just below 4,000 yards and 30 TDs, which put him at QB13. In his the first four weeks of the season he faces the Lions, Commanders, and Cowboys. Those could be fun games with plenty of passing. Then a high-scoring game against the Ravens in Week 17 is waiting if you make your league’s championship. Love should not be getting drafted in the 13th round like he is on Underdog.
Running Back: Alvin Kamara (56.4/RB18)
Do you mean to tell me that we could draft a running back projected to total over 1,300 scrimmage yards and hit 6 TDs in the middle of the fifth round? Where do I sign up for that Zero RB target? That’s exactly where Kamara is projected, and in the Saints backfield he’s the only proven player. Did I forget to mention that he’s caught 57 or more passes in seven of his eight NFL seasons? Don’t overthink: Get your WRs early and then grab Kamara.
Wide Receiver: Marvin Harrison Jr. (27.6/WR14)
Are people still drafting early Marvin Sr.’s kid from Ohio State, the one who kept running away from cornerbacks who are not playing in the NFL today? MHJ is so talented, but he’s also going in the early third round, and is projected for 71 receptions, 1,011 yards, and just under 8 TDs. Those projections have him as WR18, roughly the same as DK Metcalf going 18 picks later. George Pickens is another going in Metcalf’s range. I’d rather take a shot with Davante Adams at a similar ADP, and maybe on Garrett Wilson if Justin Fields returns to health soon.
Hoping this helps you make sense of these players’ ADPs. But wait, there’s more.
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Fantasy
Is George Kittle THE Tight End To Draft In 2025?
If you asked Dwain McFarland that question, his answer would lean far more towards yes than it would no …
“With the 49ers dealing with injuries to Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey, fantasy managers were reminded how good this man is at football. Kittle led all TEs with 15.8 PPG and averaged 16.6 with a 22% target share if you exclude Week 18, when he only played 30% of snaps.
“With Aiyuk recovering from a mid-season ACL injury, Deebo Samuel gone, and Ricky Pearsall as an unproven No. 2 WR behind Jauan Jennings, we should see another strong target share season for Kittle.
“Kittle's age pushes him below Bowers and McBride in the tier, but he offers the most play-making upside in the group. With less target competition, he rebounded with a massive 2.62 YPRR, looking more like the old Kittle:
2018: 2.82 YPRR
2019: 3.12 YPRR
2020: 2.84 YPRR
“Over the last two seasons, he posted aDOTs of 9.9 and 8.9. Kittle has the skills to earn targets and get downfield, unlocking serious TD upside.
“Brock Purdy averaged 268 and 258 yards in 2023 and 2024. Over the last three years, Kyle Shanahan ranks second in motion (64%) and two-WR sets (39%). Kittle saw 32% of his targets (eighth) off play action in 2024.
“Kittle is my favorite early-round TE target in 2025, thanks to his Round 4 price tag and massive upside.”
Who else is Dwain zeroing in on at the tight end position? His full Tight End rankings and tiers are here to answer that question. ⤵️
Fantasy
Regression Is Coming For These Quarterbacks …
Before you immediately panic and worry about which QBs are about to fall off a cliff … in fantasy football, regression comes in two forms—positive and negative. Sure, we could use the word “progression,” but that’s not as fun.
Anyways, after C.J. Stroud went scorched-Earth as a rookie, he fell all the way to (in our best Ian Hartitz voice) the freakin’ QB28 in points per game in 2025. QB28!!
On the flip side, Baker Mayfield set all sorts of career-highs in 2025. Yards per attempt, touchdown passes, completion percentage, hell, even rushing yards. All of this culminated in a top-five finish among QBs in fantasy points per game.
Two QBs landing on two different ends of the spectrum, after very different 2024s relative to what they did in 2023.
Can we expect these trends to continue, or are they expected to come back down (or up) to Earth?
Jonathan Fuller dives into the biggest regression candidates for the QB position ahead of your fantasy drafts to help you overcome recency bias. ⬇️
Fantasy
Around the Watercooler
The latest NFL news and fantasy football analysis from our merry band of football nerds:
👀 Speaking of regression … who are the targets and fades at the RB position?
💪 Anyone need a QB? Here’s an early look at the top quarterbacks coming out in the 2026 NFL Draft.
😈 With fantasy draft season comes punishment decisions. Make them suffer.
📰 ICYMI: News items from the week of NFL Training Camps.
📔 Dear Dynasty Diary: With only 40 days of NFL offseason left, how can I still improve my roster?
🚀 Um, Drake London could get 180 targets … Kyle Pitts, oh, someone convince us!
🍋 Dwain also has, “Faith in 5.” Go hard for him in Round 3.
🤞Justin Fields will be OK. He’ll be OK, OK?! And a few late-round RBs to target.
👁️ JJettas tweaked a hammy. Something to keep an eye on.
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