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It's Time To Panic On This RB

Peter Overzet
07/29/2025
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Fantasy Life Newsletter

I don’t know if things are actually different in 2025, but the fire hose of information from training camp seems to be blasting at a higher pressure compared to last year.

Every time I refresh X and Rotoworld, there seems to be another piece of news to process.

And since I’m drafting teams constantly (including one with our very own Dwain McFarland yesterday!), I’m always evaluating whether a news nugget comes with any signal or if it is just noise.

With that said, let’s introduce a new format for digesting camp news that I’m (regrettably?*) calling “Panic, Pump, Or Pause.”

Let me explain …

Panic—Joe Mixon. This Mixon injury stuff doesn’t sound good. Over the weekend, he was placed on the non-football injury list and is expected to be out for an extended period of time with a “frustrating foot injury.” On top of that, DeMeco Ryans doesn’t even want to talk about it.

I’m full-fading Mixon for now, bumping up Nick Chubb, and indulging in a sprinkle of Woody Marks.

Pump—Tank Bigsby. As a massive Bhayshul Tuten stan, it pains me to cope with all of the positive Bigsby buzz, but there is no ignoring it. There have now been multiple reports from camp that he’s receiving the bulk of the carries with the first team and standing out more than Travis Etienne.

No one is going to get me to stop drafting Tuten as the mystery box rookie, but I’m going to chill out on Etienne in the short term and scoop up as much Bigsby as I can before his price inevitably skyrockets.

Pause—Terry McLaurin and Jauan Jennings. Both McLaurin and Jennings want new contracts, and both are conveniently also dealing with injuries (ankle and calf, respectively) that are preventing them from practicing right now.

I’m pressing pause on drafting both at their current prices and hoping for a discount, especially since this McLaurin stuff has the potential to get ugly.

*It does kind of sound like something from a breastfeeding guide, so if anyone has a better idea, let me know.

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The 1.02 Debate: Saquon Barkley vs. Bijan Robinson

Luckily, the conversation of who to take second overall isn’t deep. Let’s assume the person drafting from the 1.01 took Ja’Marr Chase. We are left with only two options afterward.

  • Bijan Robinson

  • Saquon Barkley

Before Chris Allen dives into the stats, let’s think about our choices from two different perspectives.

First, they’re both bell cow RBs. In neutral situations, few saw more of their team’s carries. Plus, each earned double-digit target shares. On the surface, there’s no wrong answer here. But then there’s the roster construction aspect to consider.

By starting with a rusher, our options at receiver disappear before we can even celebrate our pick. Again, it’s not to say we made a wrong decision. However, each selection should inform the next. And even though the 1.01 took some of the pressure off us, things only get slightly easier from the two-hole.

Barkley had 30 explosive runs throughout the regular season. So, it’s no surprise to see the former Giants RB at the top of the expected points added chart for rushers. However, before the haters start to cheer, Barkley ranking fifth in success rate (which is more indicative of future production) should silence any notion that the Eagles’ offensive line was the driver.

On the other hand, Bijan Robinson was one of eight RBs with over 60.0% of his team’s totes before Michael Penix took over. He even had a 13.6% target share. By our UR Score rankings, it’d be tough to find a runner with a better workload.

So, who’s the right pick at the 1.02 in drafts this summer? Let’s dive in and work on building out a winning roster around them as Chris walks us through the strategy using our Draft Champion Mock Draft Simulator. ⤵️

HOW TO BUILD A WINNER FROM THE 1.02

Dynasty

Dynasty Rankings: Pickens On The Move

When the trade of George Pickens to the Steelers was finalized in early May, the reaction was relatively lukewarm. Granted, the NFL Draft had recently happened, and the fantasy world was still putting together all the pieces to all 32 NFL teams’ roster puzzles. The Cowboys had a clear No. 1 WR in CeeDee Lamb, so would there be enough targets left for Pickens in this offense? 

Sam Wallace breaks down his latest update to his dynasty fantasy football rankings and explores this question about the Cowboys, delving into Pickens’ expanding role, the other receiving options, and how pass-happy Dak Prescott will be in Big D. See how Pickens’ dynasty value has been impacted, as well as that of other players. Sam’s overview of two offenses in particular will help you in evaluating which players to target in dynasty.👇🏼

INVEST IN PREMIUM PLAYERS AT ONESIE POSITIONS IN STARTUPS?

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Around the Watercooler

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds.

👀 Does Michael Penix have eyes for Kyle Pitts? Plus more training camp updates.

🔮 How many QBs do we project to throw for more than 25 TDs?

😢 I can’t believe Arthur Smith let him go. Is nothing sacred?

🤑 Courtland Sutton gets paid. Terry next??

👁️‍🗨️ Finally some more reporting on Najee. Better than nothing.

🙏 Shoutout to Coach Prime. He had been quietly battling cancer.

🤔 Deciding on a team name this season? 165 of the best options.

📊 Top 10 QB rankings. Who will make it in by end of season?

👋 Who needs two hands? Not MHJ.

💪 Best shape of my life … At a job interview? Yup, all the cliches.


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Peter Overzet

Peter Overzet

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